Congressman Flood at Agri-Pulse: How to Improve the Future for Soybean Farm Families

Farmers in the Midwest have endured yet another period of significant economic uncertainty this fall as China opted not to purchase American soybeans during September for the first time in years. Even before this, soybeans sat near five-year lows for virtually all of 2025. 

How did this happen? 

During his first term in 2018, President Trump started raising tariffs on goods coming from China. In the years leading up to this, Chinese goods imported into the United States had enjoyed very low tariff rates. 

As trade tensions between China and America escalated in 2018, China temporarily stopped buying American soybeans to gain leverage in the growing trade war. American soybean exports to China fell by over 90% for a while. 

About a year later in January 2020, President Trump secured his historic Phase One trade agreement with China. This agreement promised about $200 billion in purchases by China over two years. 

At the end of the time covered by the agreement, China had not fulfilled its terms. Ultimately, China purchased about 83% of the agricultural products they committed to, and less than 60% of all the goods and commodities they promised by the end of 2021. 

Fast forward to today, and America once again has its sights set on another trade agreement with China. Just like 2018, China pulled back from buying American soybeans this fall, leaving American soybean growers uncertain about the future. 

Going forward, what can soybean farmers expect in light of this recurring pattern of China pulling back from buying soybeans? 

Following President Trump's meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping last week, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant said China planned to purchase 12 million metric tons of soybeans by the end of 2025 and additional significant purchases in the coming years. 

This is good news in the short term, but our farmers need long term stability. The last several years have revealed that China will certainly buy U.S. soybeans when they need them, but also that China is willing to use soybeans as leverage in the ongoing trade war between our countries and to buy soybeans from our two biggest competitors: Argentina and Brazil.  

Even if China does want to rely more on our competitors, shifting weather conditions may force them to increase purchases from the U.S. at times. For example, South America is expected to experience a La Niña weather pattern during its upcoming growing season this winter. This could mean a warmer, drier growing season, and if that happens, China might have to rely more on the U.S. 

Even with a temporary trade war truce with China, America needs to insulate itself and our farm families against uncertainty. There are things we can do right now to help grow their future. 

First, we need to expand access to and the availability of soy-based biofuels. This starts with strong renewable volume obligation (RVO) levels for biomass-based diesel and other biofuels that rely on soybeans as a feedstock. 

Second, we need to diversify markets. While China will be the largest market for soybeans for the foreseeable future, we need to think long term. In addition to buying soybeans from our competitors, China is also investing in improving its own ag productivity and they have a declining population, which means their demand for overseas ag commodities may wane over time. To this end, the Trump administration has been working to open more markets for our ag commodities so that our farm families have more opportunities to sell their products around the world. 

 Third, as President Trump works on our trade relationship with China, we need to make sure there’s enforceability, so that China delivers on the terms of the agreement. This is difficult to achieve, but I’m confident President Trump will work to ensure that China upholds their end of any deal.  

And last, but certainty not least, Congress must pass a Farm Bill. Our growers are counting on us to provide domestic market certainty, invest in the next generation of farmers, expand and develop foreign markets, and maintain critical crop protection and risk management tools. 

While this harvest season has been yielding a bumper crop, it’s critical that we restore hope for our soybean farmers. Know that I’m fighting for you and that I’ll be working with the administration to grow opportunities, so that there’s a bright future ahead for both you and our rural communities.

Rep. Mike Flood, R-Neb., represents Nebraska’s 1st District.